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Understanding the epidemiology of emerging pathogens, such as Usutu virus (USUV) infections, requires systems investigation at each scale involved in the host–virus transmission cycle, from individual bird infections, to bird-to-vector transmissions, and to USUV incidence in bird and vector populations. For new pathogens field data are sparse, and predictions can be aided by the use of laboratory-type inoculation and transmission experiments combined with dynamical mathematical modelling. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of two strains of USUV by constructing mathematical models for the within-host scale, bird-to-vector transmission scale and vector-borne epidemiological scale. We used individual within-host infectious virus data and per cent mosquito infection data to predict USUV incidence in birds and mosquitoes. We addressed the dependence of predictions on model structure, data uncertainty and experimental design. We found that uncertainty in predictions at one scale change predicted results at another scale. We proposedin silicoexperiments that showed that sampling every 12 hours ensures practical identifiability of the within-host scale model. At the same time, we showed that practical identifiability of the transmission scale functions can only be improved under unrealistically high sampling regimes. Instead, we proposed optimal experimental designs and suggested the types of experiments that can ensure identifiability at the transmission scale and, hence, induce robustness in predictions at the epidemiological scale. 

Abstract West Nile virus (WNV) was first identified in North America almost 20 yr ago. In that time, WNV has crossed the continent and established enzootic transmission cycles, resulting in intermittent outbreaks of human disease that have largely been linked with climatic variables and waning avian seroprevalence. During the transcontinental dissemination of WNV, the original genotype has been displaced by two principal extant genotypes which contain an envelope mutation that has been associated with enhanced vector competence by Culex pipiens L. (Diptera: Culicidae) and Culex tarsalis Coquillett vectors. Analyses of retrospective avian host competence data generated using the founding NY99 genotype strain have demonstrated a steady reduction in viremias of house sparrows over time. Reciprocally, the current genotype strains WN02 and SW03 have demonstrated an inverse correlation between house sparrow viremia magnitude and the time since isolation. These data collectively indicate that WNV has evolved for increased avian viremia while house sparrows have evolved resistance to the virus such that the relative host competence has remained constant. Intrahost analyses of WNV evolution demonstrate that selection pressures are avian species-specific and purifying selection is greater in individual birds compared with individual mosquitoes, suggesting that the avian adaptive and/or innate immune response may impose a selection pressure on WNV. Phylogenomic, experimental evolutionary systems, and models that link viral evolution with climate, host, and vector competence studies will be needed to identify the relative effect of different selective and stochastic mechanisms on viral phenotypes and the capacity of newly evolved WNV genotypes for transmission in continuously changing landscapes.